SHA Analytics, LLC conducted a quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis for Metro’s Highway Program on the Westbound SR-91 Project during the Plans, Specifications, and Estimates (PS&E) phase. The Westbound State Route 91 Project from Shoemaker to I-605 Interchange includes improvements to approximately 3 miles of SR-91 between Shoemaker Blvd and the I-605 interchange through the cities of Cerritos and Artesia and improvements to local streets including Pioneer Blvd, Norwalk Blvd. Bloomfield Ave, and Artesia Blvd. The scope involves adding one new SR-91 Westbound general purpose lane, creating a new two-lane WB SR-91 to NB I-605 connector, maintaining the auxiliary lanes between ramps, enhancing existing freeway on- and off-ramps, replacing overcrossings at Gridley Road and Bloomfield Ave, and improving arterial streets in the vicinity of the freeway ramp intersections.

To conduct this risk analysis, SHA Analytics, LLC initially reviewed the existing Project information, including documents and cost and schedule estimates, then developed an initial risk questionnaire to collect information on risks from the Project Team. Once this information was collected and processed, SHA Analytics, LLC facilitated a risk assessment workshop to quantify risks and develop the Project’s risk register. Following the workshop, we conducted a quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to estimate risk-adjusted cost and schedule outcomes and presented these results to the Metro Project Team. The risk analysis outcomes helped Metro identify contingency budgets needed for the Project’s construction and highlighted high-risk areas to further evaluate in a future constructability review.