SHA Analytics, LLC conducted a funding gap analysis of the proposed I-605 Corridor improvements Project for Metro’s Congestion Reduction Program. The Project is considering several alternatives consisting of variations in the physical roadway configuration and the tolling scheme, to implement High Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes on I-605 in Los Angeles, CA. HOT lanes are managed lanes that allow high occupancy vehicles (HOV) to travel free of charge and charge variable tolls based on level of demand to non-HOV users of the facility. At the time of the analysis the project was in the environmental planning phase and Metro is identifying potential funding sources.

Our analysis incorporated existing Project information, cost estimates and traffic and revenue forecasts developed as part of the Project Approval/ Environmental Document (PA/ED) to evaluate forecasted toll revenues compared to the estimated Project costs within a risk analysis framework to estimate the range of the potential funding gap for the Project. Several alternatives were assessed, based on the various roadway physical configurations (i.e. number of HOT lanes in each direction), tolling schemes, HOV requirements, and discounts for clean air vehicles.  Our funding gap analysis evaluated forecasted toll revenues compared to the estimated Project costs within a risk-adjusted framework, using Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the range of the potential funding gap for the Project.

Our analysis provided LACMTA with a high-level indication of Project’s ability to fund portions of the cost based on estimated toll revenues and is not intended to be a comprehensive financial analysis of the Project.