SHA Analytics, LLC conducted a quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis for the Eastbound SR-91 Atlantic Avenue to Cherry Avenue Auxiliary Lane Project for Metro’s Complete Streets & Highway Capital group during the Ready to List (RTL) phase of project delivery. This risk assessment was conducted after 100% PS&E, during the time the Project was approaching the construction phase. The purpose of the Project is to implement an auxiliary lane between the I-710 Freeway on-ramp and the Cherry Avenue off-ramp in the eastbound direction on SR 91. The Project also includes widening four existing bridges to accommodate the new axillary lane, construction of new retaining walls including sound walls on retaining walls, and modifying existing ramps. The Project is part of Metro’s I-605 Hot Spots program and is intended to enhance safety and reduce traffic congestion.

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To conduct this risk analysis, SHA Analytics, LLC reviewed the current Project information, including the constructability review and cost and schedule estimates, then developed an initial risk questionnaire to collect data on risks from the Project team. The Project team members provided an initial assessment of risks via the questionnaire and SHA Analytics, LLC developed a starter risk register. Using this risk register, SHA Analytics, LLC facilitated a risk assessment workshop with participation from the Project team and subject matter experts from Metro to quantify risks for the analysis. Following the workshop, we conducted a quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to estimate risk-adjusted cost and schedule outcomes and presented these results to the Metro Project Team. The risk analysis outcomes helped Metro identify contingency budgets needed for the Project’s construction and highlighted high-risk areas to monitor during the bidding and construction phases of the Project.